GUEST COLUMN
March 9, 2007
Posted to the web March 9, 2007
By Jakkie Cilliers
RANGING from the time of its exploration as the "dark continent" to its role as a source of slaves and as a venue for colonial conquest and Cold War battlefields, Africa has always had strangers at its gates. These men, for few females were involved in much of this, took many forms -- explorers, merchants, slave traders, colonial masters, technical advisers, intelligence agents and even the odd diplomat.
Today Africa appears to finds itself at a crossroads, between the hard power of the US, the soft power of Europe and the allure of China.
Ideology has given way to business, requirements for good governance and, in the case of the US, the imperatives of counter-terrorism. The West, an admittedly vague concept, but once Africa's lodestar, appears divided between the hard military power of the US, asserting its unilateral right to protect its national interests, and the soft governance model of Europe, which has sought to advance a global system based on "Western values".
When the Americans discuss a trade agreement, Africans argue, they start with questions about their interlocutor's role in the war on terror, and in the case of the Europeans, on corruption. China's one-party system necessarily precludes its proselytising for democracy. It stands by its economic record, which suggests that the removal of poverty must precede the introduction of democracy -- an argument that is in line with mainstream African thinking, which has grown weary of aid conditionality.
If China's energy shortage and population surplus can help rebuild a largely derelict continent, then Beijing holds much attraction for Africa. Because the Chinese are not imposing any ideology, its willing buyer/willing seller approach is welcomed.
Above all, the phenomenal growth rates in China and the fact that hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty is an attractive model for Africans, and not just for an elderly leadership that is often part of Africa's problem.
China makes no effort to recruit Africans to an alternative value system or ideology except that of the provision of market access for Chinese manufacturing output in return for African resources. China offers Africa an alternative model to that of the West -- the Beijing consensus on the non-interference in the internal affairs of other states.
Where the Washington consensus sought to impose external conditionalities in the interests of the Western dominated global order, China has a different promise.
Writing for the Financial Mail Martin Davies recently said: "Emboldened by the attention and financial gains from China, African states may be less inclined to pursue political reform. Some would even argue that the Chavez effect is taking hold in Africa: resource nationalism, delayed political reform and increased assertiveness against traditional Western interests."
Young, intelligent, well-educated Africans are attracted to the Chinese model, even though Beijing is not pursuing human rights, democracy or good governance -- the core values that we have been taught would pave the way to prosperity for all our peoples.
Already more than 800 Chinese state-owned enterprises are active in Africa across the continent, most evident in oil-rich Nigeria, Sudan and Angola -- the latter also China's largest supplier of oil.
By 2005 China's two-way trade with the continent had quadrupled since 2000 to stand at US$39,7 billion. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao wants to grow it two-and-a-half times to US$100 billion in the next four years, at which point it may overtake the US -- which had US$91 billion in bilateral trade exchanges with Africa in 2006.
Over the past two years, China has recorded a deficit in its overall trade with the continent, but that is partly due to Africa supplying 30% of China's oil imports.
Not all is as rosy as it may seem, however. Trade with China is likely to become an increasingly politically sensitive issue for a number of African countries, including South Africa whose manufacturing industry and its ready access to the African market stands to be decimated by the flood of cheap-quality Chinese goods. But the march appears unstoppable. Weak African governments have natural resources and few, if any, can hold China or Chinese companies to account or lever good behaviour.
The question of whether Chinese-produced goods exported to Africa are forestalling the chance of Africa entering the world market for manufactured goods is one laden with political issues.
In the long-term Africa needs trade, not aid, although the debate about how it could make the leap from its current situation to that of a trade partner has been a recurring theme in much debate around Nepad, the Commission for Africa and the need for an "aid push".
Of course, development in Africa requires a comprehensive approach and will have to overcome the internal barriers to development such as the efficiency of public spending.
China, for all its immediate self-interest, is providing just that -- trade. African countries cannot compete in manufacturing with China, but if they create larger internal markets for themselves through free trade areas, there could be longer-term potential.
This is a two-way street. China may be pushing its Africa policy hard, but African leaders, increasingly scornful of western conditionality, are welcoming the far less judgemental Chinese way of doing of business.
Ironically, neither China nor the US has bought into the global governance model and their collective approach provides others with the opportunity to cop-out from the constraints of good governance, democracy and human rights -- a return to indifference and the escape offered by national sovereignty, although for very different reasons and with different results.
The EU is most likely to suffer from the result of the dictatorship premium since it is interested in global governance buttressed by the independent global governance network that the EU and its member states have established through mechanisms such as the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights under which the community will provide assistance to third countries contributing to the development and consolidation of democracy and the rule of law, and of respect for all human rights and fundamental freedoms.
* Cilliers is Institute of Security Studies executive director.